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“分类调控”考验政府之手(图)

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2018年10月23日 20:31:22
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(  这)(是)(位)(于)(北)(京)(大)(兴)(区)(的)(一)(处)(住)(宅)(小)(区)(楼)(盘)((8月)(19日)(摄)()。8月)(18日)(,国)(家)(统)(计)(局)(公)(布)(的)(“7月)(份)(70个)(大)(中)(城)(市)(住)(宅)(销)(售)(价)(格)(变)(动)(情)(况)(”显)(示)(,7月)(份)(,北)(上)(广)(深)(四)(大)(一)(线)(城)(市)(房)(价)(首)(现)(全)(面)(下)(跌)(,环)(比)(降)(幅)(分)(别)(为)(1.3%,1.4%,1.3%,0.6%。其)(中)(,北)(京)(房)(价)(自)(2012年)(6月)(以)(来)(首)(现)(下)(跌)(。新)(华)(社)(记)(者)(李)(鑫)(  新)(华)(网)(北)(京)(8月)(20日)(电)((黄)(蕾)()中)(国)(楼)(市)(的)(“限)(购)(”之)(路)(,已)(经)(足)(足)(走)(了)(四)(年)(。媒)(体)(整)(理)(发)(现)(,过)(去)(十)(年)(关)(于)(楼)(市)(调)(控)(的)(文)(件)(足)(足)(下)(发)(了)(179份)(,“限)(购)(令)(”被)(视)(作)(效)(力)(最)(猛)(,也)(最)(受)(争)(议)(的)(政)(策)(。  2010年)(4月)(17日)(出)(台)(的)(“新)(国)(十)(条)(”(《国)(务)(院)(关)(于)(坚)(决)(遏)(制)(部)(分)(城)(市)(房)(价)(过)(快)(上)(涨)(的)(通)(知)(》)拉)(开)(了)(史)(上)(最)(严)(一)(轮)(房)(地)(产)(调)(控)(的)(序)(幕)(。随)(后)(,北)(京)(领)(衔)(,一)(批)(房)(价)(上)(涨)(过)(快)(的)(城)(市)(相)(继)(颁)(布)(限)(制)(家)(庭)(购)(房)(套)(数)(的)(规)(定)(。限)(购)(、限)(贷)(的)(“双)(箭)(”齐)(发)(为)(整)(顿)(楼)(市)(环)(境)(、抑)(制)(投)(机)(性)(购)(房)(、纠)(正)(价)(格)(信)(号)(、引)(导)(购)(房)(者)(预)(期)(起)(到)(了)(立)(竿)(见)(影)(的)(作)(用)(。  时)(钟)(拨)(至)(2014年)(,楼)(市)(悄)(然)(变)(奏)(。降)(温)(、降)(价)(、降)(速)(—房)(地)(产)(市)(场)(的)(“三)(降)(”让)(房)(企)(感)(受)(到)(楼)(市)(的)(“深)(秋)(”。“限)(购)(令)(”这)(条)(四)(年)(来)(“捆)(绑)(”房)(地)(产)(行)(业)(的)(铁)(律)(开)(始)(悄)(然)(松)(动)(,46个)(限)(购)(城)(市)(中)(已)(经)(有)(37个)(或)(明)(或)(暗)(的)(开)(始)(松)(绑)(“镣)(铐)(”。  尽)(管)(“限)(购)(”松)(绑)(提)(速)(,但)(依)(旧)(未)(能)(止)(住)(房)(价)(走)(跌)(的)(趋)(势)(。8月)(18日)(,国)(家)(统)(计)(局)(发)(布)(的)(70个)(大)(中)(城)(市)(房)(价)(数)(据)(显)(示)(,价)(格)(环)(比)(下)(降)(的)(城)(市)(达)(到)(九)(成)(,包)(括)(四)(大)(一)(线)(城)(市)(。这)(是)(北)(京)(、上)(海)(、广)(州)(和)(深)(圳)(今)(年)(以)(来)(首)(次)(出)(现)(房)(价)(环)(比)(全)(部)(下)(跌)(的)(情)(况)(。其)(中)(,北)(京)(房)(价)(自)(2012年)(6月)(以)(来)(首)(现)(下)(跌)(。  地)(方)(政)(府)(暧)(昧)(“松)(绑)(”  今)(年)(全)(国)(两)(会)(以)(后)(,在)(“双)(向)(调)(控)(”的)(政)(策)(指)(引)(下)(,部)(分)(库)(存)(量)(过)(高)(的)(城)(市)(开)(始)(悄)(然)(试)(探)(政)(策)(底)(线)(,暧)(昧)(的)(抛)(出)(“松)(绑)(”楼)(市)(的)(语)(调)(。  地)(方)(政)(府)(为)(了)(撬)(动)(需)(求)(入)(市)(,“救)(市)(”的)(步)(子)(越)(迈)(越)(大)(—从)(放)(开)(限)(购)(到)(契)(税)(补)(贴)(;从)(支)(持)(首)(套)(房)(到)(支)(持)(“改)(善)(性)(住)(房)(”;还)(有)(一)(些)(地)(方)(政)(府)(意)(图)(放)(松)(“限)(贷)(”,鼓)(励)(更)(多)(需)(求)(入)(市)(。  从)(目)(前)(37个)(解)(绑)(限)(购)(的)(城)(市)(来)(看)(,可)(以)(看)(出)(地)(方)(政)(府)(在)(此)(轮)(调)(控)(中)(的)(四)(种)(面)(孔)(。  “光)(明)(正)(大)(型)(”,以)(呼)(和)(浩)(特)(为)(例)(,正)(式)(发)(文)(确)(定)(放)(开)(限)(购)(,完)(全)(松)(绑)(。其)(在)(松)(绑)(之)(后)(,迎)(来)(了)(七)(月)(小)(高)(潮)(,商)(品)(房)(成)(交)(数)(瞬)(间)(涨)(至)(1685套)(,环)(比)(增)(长)(1.68%,同)(比)(增)(长)(1056%。  “欲)(说)(还)(休)(型)(”,以)(武)(汉)(为)(例)(,官)(方)(虽)(未)(明)(确)(发)(公)(文)(表)(示)(,但)(采)(用)(口)(头)(告)(知)(取)(消)(限)(购)(。但)(是)(据)(浦)(江)((中)(国)()市)(场)(研)(究)(部)(分)(析)(,武)(汉)(在)(新)(政)(出)(台)(后)(,市)(场)(并)(未)(出)(现)(所)(期)(望)(的)(显)(著)(回)(暖)(,在)(去)(化)(下)(滑)(供)(应)(提)(升)(的)(情)(况)(下)(,去)(化)(压)(力)(再)(度)(提)(升)(。  “暗)(度)(陈)(仓)(型)(”,沈)(阳)(为)(例)(,传)(沈)(阳)(市)(限)(购)(政)(策)(取)(消)(。外)(地)(人)(不)(限)(购)(,可)(以)(购)(买)(多)(套)(住)(房)(;沈)(阳)(本)(地)(人)(也)(可)(购)(买)(多)(套)(住)(房)(。沈)(阳)(政)(府)(人)(士)(又)(出)(面)(否)(认)(,称)(没)(有)(明)(文)(取)(消)(。  “明)(确)(否)(认)(型)(”,以)(四)(大)(一)(线)(城)(市)(为)(例)(,北)(京)(底)(气)(十)(足)(,称)(北)(京)(具)(有)(城)(市)(规)(模)(大)(、人)(口)(基)(数)(大)(、资)(源)(优)(势)(强)(、房)(地)(产)(市)(场)(供)(不)(应)(求)(的)(特)(点)(,在)(税)(收)(等)(调)(控)(长)(效)(机)(制)(建)(立)(之)(前)(,限)(购)(将)(作)(为)(北)(京)(的)(一)(项)(长)(期)(政)(策)(执)(行)(下)(去)(。但)(北)(京)(市)(住)(房)(和)(城)(乡)(建)(设)(委)(员)(会)(相)(关)(人)(士)(表)(示)(,北)(京)(或)(许)(为)(更)(好)(地)(满)(足)(自)(住)(型)(和)(改)(善)(型)(住)(房)(需)(求)(,会)(在)(原)(来)(限)(购)(政)(策)(的)(一)(些)(制)(度)(细)(节)(上)(做)(出)(进)(一)(步)(的)(改)(善)(。  尽)(管)(各)(地)(纷)(纷)(给)(楼)(市)(松)(绑)(,房)(屋)(成)(交)(量)(和)(价)(格)(并)(没)(有)(出)(现)(预)(期)(上)(涨)(的)(迹)(像)(。其)(中)(,有)(明)(显)(成)(交)(反)(应)(的)(城)(市)(并)(不)(占)(多)(数)(,楼)(市)(并)(未)(见)(持)(续)(性)(地)(强)(烈)(反)(弹)(,购)(房)(者)(仍)(然)(维)(持)(观)(望)(情)(绪)(。  以)(杭)(州)(为)(例)(,据)(公)(开)(资)(料)(显)(示)(,从)(7月)(28日)(放)(松)(限)(购)(开)(始)(,经)(过)(几)(天)(的)(“小)(高)(潮)(”后)(,8月)(1日)(和)(8月)(2日)(分)(别)(售)(出)(新)(房)(258套)(与)(261套)(,基)(本)(回)(到)(了)(限)(购)(松)(绑)(前)(的)(水)(平)(。  “后)(限)(购)(”时)(代)(调)(控)(何)(去)(何)(从)(  在)(2014年)(上)(半)(年)(,大)(中)(城)(市)(房)(价)(呈)(现)(主)(动)(调)(整)(态)(势)(,全)(国)(楼)(市)(出)(现)(结)(构)(性)(过)(剩)(、成)(交)(量)(萎)(缩)(等)(特)(点)(。单)(从)(房)(价)(来)(说)(,便)(可)(见)(一)(斑)(。2014年)(1月)(,70个)(大)(中)(城)(市)(中)(,房)(价)(环)(比)(上)(涨)(的)(有)(62个)(,持)(平)(的)(有)(2个)(,环)(比)(下)(降)(的)(仅)(6个)(。到)(2014年)(6月)(,房)(价)(环)(比)(上)(涨)(的)(城)(市)(仅)(8个)(,环)(比)(持)(平)(的)(城)(市)(7个)(,环)(比)(下)(降)(的)(城)(市)(增)(至)(55个)(。  步)(入)(“后)(限)(购)(”时)(代)(的)(楼)(市)(前)(景)(依)(旧)(不)(容)(乐)(观)(。从)(7月)(份)(70个)(大)(中)(城)(市)(住)(宅)(销)(售)(价)(格)(统)(计)(数)(据)(可)(以)(看)(出)(,大)(中)(城)(市)(房)(价)(受)(解)(限)(政)(策)(影)(响)(较)(小)(,新)(建)(商)(品)(住)(宅)(房)(与)(二)(手)(住)(宅)(房)(价)(格)(依)(旧)(环)(比)(下)(降)(。其)(中)(,新)(建)(商)(品)(住)(宅)(房)(价)(格)(环)(比)(下)(降)(数)(为)(64个)(,二)(手)(住)(宅)(房)(环)(比)(下)(降)(数)(为)(65个)(,分)(别)(比)(6月)(份)(增)(加)(了)(9个)(和)(13个)(。  业)(内)(专)(家)(称)(,目)(前)(楼)(市)(降)(温)(、降)(速)(、降)(价)(的)(“三)(降)(”趋)(势)(未)(改)(。根)(据)(中)(国)(房)(地)(产)(指)(数)(系)(统)(百)(城)(价)(格)(调)(查)(数)(据)(,7月)(全)(国)(100个)(城)(市)((新)(建)()住)(宅)(平)(均)(价)(格)(为)(10835元)(/平)(方)(米)(,环)(比)(上)(月)(下)(跌)(0.81%,连)(续)(第)(3个)(月)(下)(跌)(,跌)(幅)(扩)(大)(0.31个)(百)(分)(点)(。从)(涨)(跌)(城)(市)(个)(数)(看)(,76个)(城)(市)(环)(比)(下)(跌)(,24个)(城)(市)(环)(比)(上)(涨)(。  尽)(管)(今)(年)(以)(来)(中)(央)(政)(府)(并)(未)(就)(楼)(市)(调)(控)(出)(台)(新)(的)(政)(策)(,但)(是)(《政)(府)(工)(作)(报)(告)(》中)(短)(短)(的)(两)(句)(话)(已)(然)(为)(全)(年)(的)(楼)(市)(调)(控)(定)(下)(了)(基)(调)(—“针)(对)(不)(同)(城)(市)(情)(况)(分)(类)(调)(控)(”“制)(投)(机)(投)(资)(性)(需)(求)(,促)(进)(房)(地)(产)(市)(场)(持)(续)(健)(康)(发)(展)(”。  此)(前)(,住)(建)(部)(副)(部)(长)(仇)(宝)(兴)(对)(“分)(类)(调)(控)(”给)(出)(如)(下)(的)(阐)(释)(,“调)(控)(房)(地)(产)(市)(场)(就)(像)(治)(大)(国)(,必)(须)(像)(烹)(小)(鲜)(一)(样)(对)(待)(。能)(局)(部)(调)(的)(,就)(不)(要)(整)(体)(调)(,调)(节)(的)(手)(段)(对)(整)(体)(影)(响)(越)(小)(越)(好)(。能)(够)(用)(经)(济)(手)(段)(调)(的)(,就)(不)(要)(用)(行)(政)(手)(段)(调)(,行)(政)(手)(段)(越)(少)(越)(好)(。能)(够)(由)(城)(市)(政)(府)(调)(的)(,就)(不)(要)(由)(中)(央)(政)(府)(代)(替)(。”  多)(位)(专)(家)(指)(出)(,中)(央)(提)(出)(分)(类)(调)(控)(实)(际)(上)(是)(让)(市)(场)(自)(行)(调)(节)(、放)(调)(控)(权)(于)(地)(方)(,让)(地)(方)(政)(府)(根)(据)(当)(地)(房)(地)(产)(市)(场)(发)(展)(情)(况)(适)(时)(、适)(当)(的)(调)(控)(。  在)(当)(前)(楼)(市)(的)(敏)(感)(期)(,开)(发)(商)(与)(购)(房)(者)(的)(博)(弈)(仍)(在)(继)(续)(。如)(何)(稳)(定)(楼)(市)(预)(期)(、增)(加)(自)(住)(型)(需)(求)(;如)(何)(消)(化)(库)(存)(、抑)(制)(投)(机)(性)(资)(本)(进)(入)(,这)(些)(都)(是)(地)(方)(政)(府)(调)(控)(楼)(市)(的)(出)(发)(点)(。  当)(前)(,部)(分)(地)(方)(政)(府)(对)(土)(地)(财)(政)(依)(赖)(度)(较)(大)(。部)(分)(地)(方)(政)(府)(迫)(于)(经)(济)(发)(展)(和)(财)(政)(压)(力)(,或)(将)(相)(继)(松)(绑)(楼)(市)(限)(购)(政)(策)(。而)(如)(果)(解)(限)(的)(“度)(”没)(有)(把)(握)(到)(位)(,则)(会)(刺)(激)(投)(机)(性)(资)(金)(介)(入)(,再)(次)(让)(调)(控)(陷)(入)(两)(难)(。  亚)(太)(房)(地)(产)(经)(济)(研)(究)(院)(院)(长)(谢)(逸)(枫)(分)(析)(指)(出)(,当)(前)(楼)(市)(发)(展)(状)(况)(总)(体)(有)(三)(个)(方)(向)(,一)(是)(楼)(市)(分)(化)(,因)(人)(口)(流)(动)(与)(资)(源)(配)(置)(不)(均)(衡)(及)(城)(市)(经)(济)(发)(展)(水)(平)(不)(同)(、城)(镇)(化)(的)(推)(进)(、户)(籍)(制)(度)(的)(影)(响)(,楼)(市)(的)(城)(市)(、供)(应)(、需)(求)(、房)(价)(、结)(构)(的)(越)(来)(越)(分)(化)(,必)(然)(贯)(穿)(全)(年)(延)(续)(到)(2015年)(;二)(是)(楼)(市)(实)(施)(分)(类)(、双)(向)(调)(控)(,即)(有)(保)(有)(压)(,平)(衡)(供)(需)(,稳)(定)(预)(期)(;三)(是)(楼)(市)(进)(入)(深)(度)(调)(整)(期)(,2014年)(是)(调)(整)(年)(,按)(照)(过)(去)(前)(三)(个)(周)(期)(时)(间)(看)(,2005年)(、2008年)(、2011年)(都)(是)(每)(次)(间)(隔)(三)(年)(。  楼)(市)(“后)(限)(购)(”时)(代)(如)(何)(践)(行)(好)(分)(类)(调)(控)(、双)(向)(调)(控)(,如)(何)(拿)(捏)(好)(因)(地)(制)(宜)(、因)(“时)(”制)(宜)(,考)(验)(着)(中)(央)(和)(地)(方)(政)(府)(的)(调)(控)(智)(慧)(。只)(有)(管)(住)(看)(不)(见)(的)(手)(,让)(市)(场)(机)(制)(在)(调)(控)(中)(发)(挥)(主)(导)(作)(用)(,通)(过)(市)(场)(的)(自)(行)(调)(节)(,中)(国)(楼)(市)(才)(能)(在)(量)(与)(价)(之)(间)(寻)(找)(到)(新)(的)(平)(衡)(点)(。
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