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澳新银行:中国或连续第二年达不到贸易增速目标

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2018年10月23日 20:03:40
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(  对)(于)(7月)(10日)(公)(布)(的)(中)(国)(6月)(贸)(易)(数)(据)(,澳)(新)(银)(行)(当)(日)(发)(布)(报)(告)(表)(示)(,相)(对)(疲)(弱)(的)(出)(口)(表)(现)(在)(一)(定)(程)(度)(上)(受)(到)(了)(中)(国)(官)(方)(打)(击)(“热)(钱)(流)(入)(”的)(影)(响)(,继)(上)(月)(进)(出)(口)(数)(据)(出)(现)(崩)(盘)(后)(,本)(月)(贸)(易)(数)(据)(再)(度)(走)(弱)(,也)(揭)(开)(了)(中)(国)(贸)(易)(的)(真)(实)(状)(况)(。  澳)(新)(银)(行)(认)(为)(,这)(样)(的)(贸)(易)(表)(现)(意)(味)(着)(整)(体)(经)(济)(的)(增)(长)(前)(景)(仍)(然)(面)(临)(下)(行)(风)(险)(,且)(如)(果)(这)(样)(的)(状)(况)(持)(续)(,也)(意)(味)(着)(中)(国)(的)(全)(年)(贸)(易)(增)(速)(很)(可)(能)(低)(于)(年)(初)(设)(定)(的)(8%的)(目)(标)(,这)(也)(将)(是)(中)(国)(连)(续)(第)(二)(年)(未)(能)(完)(成)(贸)(易)(增)(速)(的)(目)(标)(。  报)(告)(同)(时)(认)(为)(,疲)(弱)(的)(贸)(易)(表)(现)(也)(已)(经)(对)(就)(业)(市)(场)(产)(生)(明)(显)(的)(负)(面)(影)(响)(。据)(相)(关)(媒)(体)(报)(道)(,中)(国)(船)(舶)(制)(造)(的)(龙)(头)(企)(业)(熔)(盛)(重)(工)(已)(经)(在)(近)(期)(进)(行)(了)(大)(规)(模)(的)(裁)(员)(,这)(也)(从)(侧)(面)(反)(映)(了)(中)(国)(出)(口)(型)(企)(业)(面)(临)(的)(困)(境)(。  6月)(份)(贸)(易)(数)(据)(显)(示)(,中)(国)(上)(月)(出)(口)(同)(比)(下)(降)(3.1%,低)(于)(5月)(的)(1.0%以)(及)(市)(场)(预)(期)(值)(3.7%;进)(口)(同)(比)(下)(降)(0.7%,也)(低)(于)(5月)(的)(-0.3%和)(市)(场)(预)(期)(值)(6.0%。由)(于)(出)(口)(减)(速)(更)(快)(,中)(国)(在)(6月)(的)(贸)(易)(顺)(差)(反)(而)(出)(现)(了)(扩)(大)(,为)(271亿)(美)(元)(,高)(于)(上)(月)(的)(204亿)(美)(元)(。  分)(类)(数)(据)(显)(示)(,中)(国)(对)(美)(国)(和)(欧)(洲)(的)(出)(口)(分)(别)(同)(比)(下)(降)(5.4%和)(8.3%,上)(月)(则)(为)(-1.6%以)(及)(-9.7%,对)(日)(本)(的)(出)(口)(也)(出)(现)(了)(5.1%的)(下)(滑)(,上)(月)(则)(为)(-9.7%。对)(香)(港)(的)(出)(口)(同)(比)(下)(降)(了)(7.0%,上)(月)(则)(为)(7.7%。澳)(新)(银)(行)(称)(,这)(在)(一)(定)(程)(度)(上)(反)(映)(了)(通)(过)(香)(港)(进)(行)(进)(出)(口)(套)(利)(的)(活)(动)(开)(始)(明)(显)(减)(小)(。与)(此)(同)(时)(,中)(国)(对)(东)(盟)(的)(出)(口)(则)(同)(比)(增)(长)(了)(10.2%,对)(台)(湾)(的)(出)(口)(则)(下)(滑)(了)(2.2%。  报)(告)(并)(称)(,伴)(随)(着)(人)(民)(币)(对)(亚)(洲)(货)(币)(的)(持)(续)(升)(值)(,中)(国)(的)(出)(口)(竞)(争)(力)(也)(将)(明)(显)(减)(弱)(,而)(人)(民)(币)(从)(去)(年)(以)(来)(的)(持)(续)(走)(强)(在)(很)(大)(程)(度)(上)(是)(受)(到)(了)(“热)(钱)(”流)(入)(的)(影)(响)(,而)(非)(真)(实)(的)(贸)(易)(驱)(动)(。  澳)(新)(银)(行)(从)(这)(一)(角)(度)(分)(析)(认)(为)(,中)(国)(应)(该)(缩)(小)(境)(内)(外)(市)(场)(的)(利)(差)(,以)(减)(小)(资)(本)(流)(入)(的)(规)(模)(。  中)(美)(战)(略)(经)(济)(对)(话)(也)(将)(在)(今)(天)(在)(华)(盛)(顿)(召)(开)(,尽)(管)(美)(国)(仍)(将)(施)(压)(人)(民)(币)(,但)(澳)(新)(银)(行)(分)(析)(指)(出)(,人)(民)(币)(的)(持)(续)(升)(值)(并)(不)(符)(合)(中)(国)(的)(核)(心)(利)(益)(。从)(市)(场)(表)(现)(来)(看)(,人)(民)(币)(远)(期)(不)(可)(交)(割)(汇)(率)(也)(从)(5月)(中)(旬)(开)(始)(名)(现)(开)(始)(走)(弱)(,这)(也)(表)(现)(了)(市)(场)(开)(始)(预)(期)(人)(民)(币)(将)(在)(未)(来)(一)(段)(时)(间)(内)(走)(软)(。  在)(这)(样)(的)(状)(况)(下)(,澳)(新)(银)(行)(认)(为)(人)(民)(币)(存)(在)(着)(明)(显)(的)(下)(行)(风)(险)(,从)(长)(期)(来)(看)(,中)(国)(新)(的)(领)(导)(层)(则)(需)(要)(制)(定)(更)(加)(清)(晰)(的)(战)(略)(,并)(重)(新)(定)(位)(中)(国)(制)(造)(在)(全)(球)(价)(值)(链)(中)(的)(位)(置)(。  (编)(辑)(:王)(艺)()  作)(者)(:夏)(心)(愉)(来)(源)(一)(财)(网)()
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